lunes, 23 de marzo de 2009

LECCIONES GALLEGAS Y VASCAS


Lecciones gallegas y vascas

El pueblo no se equivoca. Ésta es una de las máximas de la democracia. Y se debe aprender.
Galicia. Veinticuatro diputados socialistas por veinticinco anteriores. Una reducción importante de voto progresista y la entrega del gobierno al Partido Popular, en un triunfo sin paliativos. Influyen: la crisis económica, la campaña electoral llena de insidias y la escasa solidaridad de los compañeros de viaje. Deciden: la ciudadanía soberana, la mala comunicación de las políticas de cambio y algunos errores estratégicos. Cuando las fuerzas progresistas sumaron votos para alcanzar el gobierno gallego lo hicieron tras una importante progresión de confianza, frente a un candidato octogenario, representante del tardofranquismo, que - no obstante - ganó de nuevo, acariciando la mayoría absoluta. Al hacerlo, interrumpieron un crecimiento gradual de sus expectativas electorales. Conclusión: una parte importante de la población movilizó el voto adverso para garantizar la victoria de su opción. Consecuencia: derrota del gobierno.
Euskadi. Veinticinco diputados socialistas por dieciocho anteriores. Un aumento significativo de voto progresista, ausencia de representación radical ilegalizada, descenso de voto conservador del PP, mantenimiento de peso conservador nacionalista del PNV, que suma ocho diputados propios más que en la elección anterior. Las fuerzas constitucionalistas alcanzan más de treinta y ocho escaños que pueden formar gobierno o, al menos, asegurar la investidura del candidato socialista. Bajo ningún concepto se trataría de un golpe institucional, como predica Urkullu, pero si se admite la posibilidad de amalgamar un gobierno estrictamente mayoritario (unido exclusivamente por la ausencia de la formación que lideró la elección) o la composición de un gobierno minoritario (con apoyos externos seriamente condicionados y extremas dificultades de gestión, que lo desgastarían precipitadamente), se corre el riesgo de cometer un error estratégico que interrumpa la progresión natural de voto de la alternativa y, en el futuro, movilice el voto adverso con el fin de impedir su efectiva concreción como gobierno sólido.
Extraigo que para gobernar es mejor ganar y, para tal objetivo, resultan esenciales las ideas y los candidatos, presentados con solvencia y actualidad porque desear el éxito no lo garantiza. Hay tajo ahora para no lamentar después.

10 comentarios:

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